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Re: 2 dead, hundreds rescued in 'dangerous' New Mexico flash flooding

Cross-posted to 5 groups.

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In alt.global-warming MrSpacesInNewsgroupLine  wrote:
> At least two people have been killed due to overnight rainfall and 
> flooding Saturday in Roswell, New Mexico, according to New Mexico State 
> Police. Nearly 300 people have been rescued by the National Guard, city 
> officials say.
...

It's a normal upward-only cycle for the last 150y. 
Stop burning fossil fuels and then we can talk again.

From the GHCN data (historical data from 10s of 1000s of weather stations --
the database was out of action for 1m when Hurricane Helene hit NC)
we can look at the number of extreme events in the US since the 19th cent.
An "extreme event" here means some value of windspeed, snowfall, temp or 
precip hit the "one percent" region -- either 1 in 100 high val or 1 in 
100 low val.
I look at all the types of data for a random 1000 stations across
the US and average to get a numberof "extreme events per year"
for a typical/average location in the US.  
I group the years into 6y bins to avoid noise from the El Nino/La Nina
cycle (a phase-locked thing recently found to be related to the orbit of 
Jupiter).

We find:

Period  Number of times in a year 
(6y)    the avg US weather station saw 
	a 1% level exceeded 
	(tmax, tmin, prcp, wspd, snow)
1896    2.80324
1902    2.83256
1908    2.74004
1914    2.86562
1920    2.86625
1926    2.79159
1932    2.7929
1938    2.87037
1944    2.83225
1950    2.86344
1956    3.00007
1962    3.13462
1968    3.27571
1974    3.31961
1980    3.10281
1986    3.32076
1992    3.21434
1998    3.0724
2004    3.06471
2010    3.39762
2016    3.42445


Simple stats package says
Beta = .005 +- .001 90% CI
T-test: Pr(Beta>0) = 99.99%
Rank test: Pr(increasing trend) > 99%

I.e. for each year the number of extreme events
around a typical place in the US has been going up .005 times a year each year.
Great for storm chasers and insurance companies.
Big Oil blames its customers of course.

-- 
[Welfare Queens:]
During this period, the U.S. made an annual average revenue of 136.9
billion U.S. dollars through the production and marketing of fossil fuel
products.
-- statista.com, 29 Apr 2024

In 2022, fossil fuel subsidies in the United States totaled $757 billion,
according to the International Monetary Fund.
-- EESI.org, 30 Jan 2024
[Around 5x revenue from sale of products and a hidden tax of  $6900 per 
US household per year].

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2 dead, hundreds rescued in 'dangerous' New Mexico flash flooding Normal Cycles <snowmelt@shit.happens> - 2024-10-21 22:31 +0200
  Re: 2 dead, hundreds rescued in 'dangerous' New Mexico flash flooding R Kym Horsell <kymhorsell@gmail.com> - 2024-10-22 02:24 +0000

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