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Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel

Cross-posted to 4 groups.

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On 6/17/12 10:23 AM, in article
325bddd0-7f9a-4248-9636-c62ef19f84ed@v9g2000yqm.googlegroups.com, "Onion
Knight" <onionknightgot@gmail.com> wrote:

... 
>>>> I see no missing steps in creating the linear trendline per se using Excel.
... 
>>> What is COLA?
>> 
>> The newsgroup where the troll Snit and his sock puppet Onion Knight
>> are lying and trolling with this topic.
> 
> What names have you used on Usenet, Steve?

Steve will *never* answer this question.  He accuses you and many, many
others of being my socks (though he has no evidence for his accusations).
At the same time, when asked about his socks he runs.

Again: I am not like Carroll and do not use armies of socks.

> How many?

Carroll has clearly lost track.
 
> Can you even list them all?  No.  You can't. You think everyone is
> like you and is using socks.

Exactly correct.  But for the sake of this cross group thread, the *only*
question that is relevant is not who did what or who is good or bad or
whatever.  The question is about if my process for creating linear trend
lines in Excel (and Numbers) is correct.  The process.  That is it... was
the process correct as I said or was it "missing steps" as they claimed?
Here is the process:

<http://tmp.gallopinginsanity.com/LinearTrendLineCreation.mov>

And using the same process, here are some of the linear trend lines that
were created:

For the latter half of 2011:
<http://tmp.gallopinginsanity.com/LinuxTrend2011-2ndhalf.png>

This supported my view that Linux usage would be increasing.  I never
predicted that the trend would necessarily continue - though I did believe
the usage would continue to move up at *some* level or stay at least roughly
consistent (it would not have a strong drop).

But here is the linear trend line for the first part of 2012:
<http://tmp.gallopinginsanity.com/LinuxTrendLine2012.jpg>

An this went contrary to my prediction... but the trend line that went
contrary to my predictions (showing my prediction to be wrong) was generated
just fine - there are no "missing steps" in the process.

Back to the debate about the process - it was also claimed (by cc, with
Carroll backing his trolling), that the way he could tell I was "missing
steps" was the low R^2 value.  But the R^2 value does not show if the
process is missing steps or not... notice with the latter half of 2011 my
R^2 value is very high at over 0.98% ... but using the same process I made a
number of graphs and the R^2 values are sometimes high and sometimes low:
<http://tmp.gallopinginsanity.com/LinuxMultLinearTrendLines.png>.

I did note that a linear trend line is not the best tool to analyze
non-linear data - and, it appears, the data is not linear... there was a
significant change at the start of 2012. So nobody is claiming that the
linear trend lines Excel and Numbers make are always the best for of
evaluation, and *certainly* nobody said that the trend lines I was creating
would be of great value for predicting the future... they were being used to
see if the predictions I had already made were proving to be true.  For 2011
they did... for 2012 they did not.

This, of course, does not prove that the reasoning behind my predictions was
true or not - even if the data had fit my predictions perfectly (which, as
noted, it did not).  It was never claimed that such tools prove any believe
in causation... but cc and Carroll repeatedly confused the concepts of the
lines *correlating* (or not) with the predictions and being a tool to prove
*causation*.  They proved, repeatedly, they could not understand the
difference in these concepts.

> While I have not been on usenet for a long time I used to post to the
> mac advocacy group years ago under a different name. Even then you
> were using several sock puppets to troll Snit because you blamed him
> for your girlfriend dumping you. That was about 10 years ago and you
> have never stopped attacking him and lying about him.

Correct though irrelevant to the thread (though I see why you were speaking
of this - to counter Steve's lies and help others understand why he is lying
and lashing out).

...
 

-- 
The indisputable facts about that absurd debate: <http://goo.gl/2337P>
cc being proved wrong about his stats BS: <http://goo.gl/1aYrP>
7 simple questions cc will *never* answer: <http://goo.gl/cNBzu>
cc again pretends to be knowledgeable about things he is clueless about.

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Thread

Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Onion Knight <onionknightgot@gmail.com> - 2012-06-15 14:16 -0700
  Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Peter Köhlmann <peter-koehlmann@t-online.de> - 2012-06-16 00:29 +0200
    Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Onion Knight <onionknightgot@gmail.com> - 2012-06-15 20:01 -0700
      Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Snit <usenet@gallopinginsanity.com> - 2012-06-15 20:21 -0700
    Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Onion Knight <onionknightgot@gmail.com> - 2012-06-15 20:05 -0700
      Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Snit <usenet@gallopinginsanity.com> - 2012-06-15 21:12 -0700
  Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel "joeu2004" <joeu2004@foo.bar> - 2012-06-15 16:22 -0700
    Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Snit <usenet@gallopinginsanity.com> - 2012-06-15 17:45 -0700
      Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Onion Knight <onionknightgot@gmail.com> - 2012-06-15 20:03 -0700
        Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Snit <usenet@gallopinginsanity.com> - 2012-06-15 21:11 -0700
        Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Steve Carroll <fretwizzer@gmail.com> - 2012-06-18 12:09 -0700
          Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Onion Knight <onionknightgot@gmail.com> - 2012-06-18 21:16 -0700
            Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Snit <usenet@gallopinginsanity.com> - 2012-06-18 23:03 -0700
              Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Steve Carroll <fretwizzer@gmail.com> - 2012-06-19 09:17 -0700
            Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Steve Carroll <fretwizzer@gmail.com> - 2012-06-19 11:09 -0700
    Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Steve Carroll <fretwizzer@gmail.com> - 2012-06-15 18:39 -0700
    Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Onion Knight <onionknightgot@gmail.com> - 2012-06-15 19:54 -0700
      Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Snit <usenet@gallopinginsanity.com> - 2012-06-15 21:06 -0700
    Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Martin Brown <|||newspam|||@nezumi.demon.co.uk> - 2012-06-17 08:57 +0100
      Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Steve Carroll <fretwizzer@gmail.com> - 2012-06-17 09:18 -0700
        Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Onion Knight <onionknightgot@gmail.com> - 2012-06-17 10:23 -0700
          Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Steve Carroll <fretwizzer@gmail.com> - 2012-06-17 13:02 -0700
          Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Snit <usenet@gallopinginsanity.com> - 2012-06-17 15:09 -0700
    Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Onion Knight <onionknightgot@gmail.com> - 2012-06-18 21:33 -0700
      Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Snit <usenet@gallopinginsanity.com> - 2012-06-18 23:19 -0700
  Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Onion Knight <onionknightgot@gmail.com> - 2012-06-18 21:29 -0700
    Re: Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel Snit <usenet@gallopinginsanity.com> - 2012-06-18 23:16 -0700

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