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Europe flirts with a continent-wide war

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may believe he has reason for  
satisfaction at the drone attack he carried out deep inside on airfields  
in the Russian Federation’s European part. The sophistication of the  
attack betrays the involvement of another country in its planning, and the  
information is that it is Britain. Tactically, the attack was brilliant  
and flawless.

https://sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/europe-flirts-with-a-continent-wide-war

The Russians were caught by surprise, even as they made the inexcusable  
error of exposing long distance strategic bombers in the open rather than  
in well covered and protected locations. The Russian aircraft were in the  
open possibly because of the New START Treaty of 2010 between Russia and  
the US, according to which such bombers have to be in the open for  
verification purposes. Zelenskyy may have torn up the New Start Treaty by  
such a breach of faith. Such bombers were not needed for an attack on  
Ukraine, a country which borders the Russian Federation.

They were meant for targets much farther away, including Britain and  
France. Once again, Ukraine has been used as a sacrificial pawn to serve  
the military interests of the major European powers in NATO. As for the  
country that Zelenskyy rules much after his legal term in office is over,  
it has provided ample justification for a substantial Russian riposte.

Vladmir Putin has been caught flat footed, and in the labyrinthine,  
ruthless world of Russian power politics, any impression of weakness may  
turn out to be terminal. As for Putin, he appears to have considerably  
mellowed from what he had earlier been, when he ensured the separation of  
the Russian-speaking parts of Georgia and later, Ukraine. He appears to be  
in thrall to a cautious Kremlin bureaucracy, holding back his possible  
punches at displays of NATO, sorry Ukrainian, audacity. In these days of  
advanced drones and missiles, was destroying some manned aircraft that  
were close to obsolescence worth it for Ukraine? Was the media publicity  
and deserved adulation at his attack worth the risk for Ukraine? It was  
not, but the former comedian has remained committed to the script handed  
over to him by his NATO paymasters, just as he has been during his career  
as a superstar in comedy. From making audiences weep with laughter through  
comedy acts, Zelenskyy is now acting out a tragedy for the Ukrainian  
people, not to mention the Russian population, by his relentless  
prosecution of a war that he cannot reasonably expect to win.

Meanwhile, Starmer, Macron, Merz and Von der Leyen may luxuriate in the  
belief that the Russian bear has been weakened, which indeed it has. The  
difficulty is that directing through their proxy Zelenskyy the attack on  
Russian airfields may have resulted in a Pearl Harbour moment for the  
master of the Kremlin. Just as the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour in  
1941 made US entry into World War II, the attack and destruction of  
several Russian bombers may have made a disproportionate response from  
Russia inevitable. And no longer just in Ukraine but inside a NATO country  
as well. Not Poland anymore, now that a Conservative has been elected  
President, who is likely to join hands with Orban in Hungary to press for  
an exit from the Ukraine war, but more likely one of the Baltic states,  
that have emerged as much a champion of the war as the Starmer-MacronMerz  
trio. Indeed, the group of 9 Nordic countries has called for the immediate  
entry of Ukraine into NATO.

Even though they may believe the Russian bear under Putin has been tamed,  
and war between Russia and NATO is therefore impossible, it may be  
possible that Putin will firm up his stance, given the multiple  
provocations flung in his direction by the alliance. It has been pointed  
out several times by this columnist that had the USSR had the spirit to  
attack Taliban bases in Pakistan, the war in Afghanistan would not have  
proved the disaster it became for the Soviets. Should a high-performance  
Russian missile land in a Baltic country (according to the media narrative  
but not official comment immediately put out by the Kremlin,  
“accidentally”), it would be the moment of truth for the pro-war group  
within NATO, excluding the US now that Trump is the President. Would  
Starmer, Macron and Merz declare war on Russia in the textbook manner  
prescribed for NATO?

What would voters in the UK, France and Germany think of such a complete  
change in the circumstances of war and make their respective countries  
direct participants in the war that has been ongoing since 2022? NATO has  
never fought a war in Europe, and has had a less than stellar record in  
the wars it has been engaged in Asia and Africa. Article 5 of NATO has  
been torn to shreds since President Trump indicated that the US was not  
willing to join in a war with Russia over Ukraine, a country which was  
once part of the USSR to no apparent detriment to the European countries  
in NATO.

Russian strategists know that the destruction of much of its long-range  
bombers by an attack scripted elsewhere than in Ukraine is a Pearl Harbour  
moment for Putin. If he were to give a less than wholly disproportionate  
response to the attack, it would be a matter of time before he is edged  
out of the Kremlin. Voters have no use for Putin Noveau, they want Putin  
to remain what he was until recently. Both the people of Ukraine and  
Russia want an end to the war. The only way to end it may be to call what  
several in Russia believe to be the bluff of NATO, that even the  
“Coalition of the Willing” in Ukraine is ready for a kinetic war against  
the Russian Federation.

Pearl Harbour was a tactical victory for Japan but a strategic disaster  
for wartime Japan. In much the same way, the brilliant and successful  
attack on Russian air bases deep inside the European part of Russia may  
turn out to be so for the Ukrainians, now facing a disproportionate attack  
 from Russia, and perhaps not just them.

### - was looking around for something that expressed my own concerns but  
not finding anything that wasn't heavily laced/spun with propaganda from  
both nato and ukraine, and then came across the above in an indian  
outlet...

and because it looks like the uk 'has' now kinda declared war on russia?  
we were only loudly complaining before while helping from behind the  
scenes, but this mass attack was clearly successful only with nato  
assistance, russia placed in the position of having to do something about  
it: their 'pearl-harbor' moment then as this above article suggests -  
something that changes the whole scope and range of the war; the proxies  
behind ukraine becoming less proxy and more open with a 40-billion+ blow  
to russia's long range bombers; aircraft designed for a different theater  
of war altogether, it being difficult to see/imagine russia not doing  
something more severe now as a warning to nato to back-off?

something obviously discussed with trump, making him comment that the  
expected retaliation "wont be pretty" - it being unlikely they'd use  
nukes, even tiny ones, but a rap on nato's knuckles is now due and russia  
isn't fucking about - they're gonna SAY something!

not in words...

and that's scary!

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